An Hypothesis

“Animal Spirits” ran out of gas in January, 2018.

From Investopedia:  “Animal Spirits is a term used by the famous British economist, John Maynard Keynes, to explain financial buying decisions in conditions of uncertainty. In Keynes’ 1936 publication, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, animal spirits describes the human emotion that drives consumer confidence. In modern economic terms, animal spirits describes the psychological factors that drive investors to take action when faced with high volatility in the capital markets. The term is derived from the Latin spiritus animalis which means the breath that awakens the human mind.”

Financial speculations that appear to have peaked in January:  Cryptocurrencies, cannibis, global equities, currencies (USD up 5%), emerging market plays, bond prices . . . Residential real estate?

In scientific research, an hypothesis describes a repeatable experiment which is “subject to falsification”.  If falsified, the hypothesis will be rejected.

Probably it would be better to think of this as an “Intuition” rather than an hypothesis.  The only way it can be falsified is if these fallen markets reverse strongly to the upside.  Until then, the intuition will be that the downtrend will persist.



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